76 Per Cent: Alberta's Early Count Rejects a Vote on Leaving Canada
With roughly a quarter of the vote counted overnight, 805,443 Albertans had chosen to remain a province of Canada against 250,171 for starting the legal process towards a binding separation referendum. CTV News has projected the result. Elections Alberta's final tally on the question is due by 4am Mountain Time.
76.4 per cent. That was the remain share on Alberta's tenth ballot question in the unofficial count published shortly before midnight Mountain Time on Monday, with 805,443 votes for staying in Canada and 250,171, or 23.6 per cent, for commencing the legal process towards a binding referendum on separation. About 23 per cent of the vote had been counted at that point, mostly advance and mail ballots, and CTV News projected the result on that basis.
The number to set beside it is turnout. Elections Alberta reported 1,356,873 votes cast in advance and by special ballot, 43.1 per cent of the 3,148,343 eligible electors, against 27.5 per cent by the same routes in the 2023 general election, and said more than 2.2 million valid ballots had been cast in total. Both figures are records. Ballots are counted by hand within 48 hours; results for the nine immigration and constitutional questions are expected on Wednesday morning, with early returns showing the five immigration questions ahead and the constitutional questions split.
The separatist campaigns had set their own bar. Alberta Prosperity Project leader Mitch Sylvestre said on Monday night that "if we're over 40 per cent, it's game on"; Let Alberta Decide co-chair Keith Wilson said he would be "very satisfied" with the high 30s. The early count sits a shade below the 24 per cent average of the final polls, which Sox flagged last week as the line to watch. We think the margin, if it holds, settles the question for this premier's term and leaves the federal government with the harder task of answering the grievance that put 250,000 votes behind a process to leave. Premier Danielle Smith, who voted remain, has said there will be no second vote while she is premier.
The Semaform
Early unofficial results in Alberta's 19 October referendum show 76.4 per cent voting to remain a province of Canada and 23.6 per cent for commencing the legal process towards a binding separation vote, with about a quarter of ballots counted and CTV projecting the result.
A three-to-one margin on record turnout settles the separation question for this term; the next test is whether Ottawa answers the grievance behind the quarter who voted to start the process.
Separatist campaigners say the movement continues whatever the result and that support is concentrated in rural Alberta; Forever Canadian's Thomas Lukaszuk says the premier alone decides what counts as a win under the Referendum Act.
Sources
- Elections Alberta, Referendum advance voting and special ballot voter turnout, 19 October 2026
- Elections Alberta, Unofficial Referendum Results Reporting Process, 19 October 2026
- CTV News / CP24, Albertans support staying in Canada, oppose separation referendum, CTV News projects, 20 October 2026
- CityNews, Alberta referendum results for all 10 questions, 20 October 2026
- St. Albert Gazette, Remain side leads with 77 per cent in preliminary Alberta referendum count, 20 October 2026
- Sox News, Alberta Starts Voting on Whether to Vote on Leaving. The Line to Watch Is 24 Per Cent, 13 October 2026
A human editor is accountable for this news. Read our editorial standards, how we use AI, what the content labels mean, and how to ask for a correction.